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Estimating the electrical energy requirements of Iran's future population until 2050 using modeling techniques of DemProj software and MAED code in order to balance nuclear power energy resources
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Abstract: (22 Views) |
In today's era, comprehensive energy policies and programs at the national and international levels have established a direct link and relationship with the issue of population. The population index, as a main parameter in the planning and balancing of energy needs of countries, has always been the focus of energy analysts. This research tries to make a correct vision of the indicators by using scientific methods and computer modeling. To provide the population and energy requirements of the future for comprehensive energy planners of the country in order to balance the electricity energy resources needed until 2050. GDP and population are the two main exogenous variables influencing the energy demand model. Also, the population horizon until 2050 with four assumptions of continued implementation of family planning policies (assumption of decreasing population growth with a rate of 1.7 children), policy of stabilization of fertility rates (assumption of stabilization of population with a rate of 1.9 children) and implementation of encouragement policy Mavalid (assumption of population increase at the rate of 1.2 and 2.5 children) and electricity demand with the two assumptions of the lowest and the highest growth rate. According to the forecast of the world's most reliable economic institutions, the GDP of the country is assumed to be 3% per year. The growth rate of electric energy demand during the years 2010 to 2017 is real and is based on the data of Iran's energy balance sheets. In the modeling, it is assumed that from 2020 to 2025 the growth rate of energy demand will reach 5.3% and from 2025 to 2035 it will reach 6% and this growth will decrease to 3% in 2040 to 2050 due to the population growth rate at the end of the period. To predict the population, the combined method and people software were used to predict the required energy demand from the MAED model, which is from the valid codes of the International Nuclear Energy Agency. The obtained results indicate that if the first assumption is fulfilled the total population of the country in 2050 is equal to 96786373 people, assuming the policy of keeping the fertility rate constant at 1.9, the population is equal to 99526476 people, assuming the implementation of the policy of encouraging births at a rate of 1.2 equals to 102314052 people, and if the fourth assumption is fulfilled, it will be equal to 108024408 people. The per capita index of electric energy consumption at the end of the planning period is equal to 5353.9 kilowatt-hours, and the amount of electric energy demand will be equal to 518182.6 million kilowatt-hours if the lowest population growth rate is realized, and if the highest growth rate is realized, it will be equal to 578349.7 million kilowatt-hours.
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| Keywords: Energy economy, comprehensive energy plan, power generation system, nuclear power plants, nuclear energy, planning, population, balance |
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Full-Text [PDF 1408 kb]
(8 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2023/05/8 | Accepted: 2023/09/11 | Published: 2026/09/1
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